Moody’s uses three different models to select their prediction for president. With the exception of 2016, Moody’s has picked every winner since they began using this method. In all three models, President Trump wins elections. In the first two, he wins by an even larger margin than he did in 2016, which was 304 electoral votes. In those models, Trump picks up three states he lost in 2016, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Minnesota. In the third model, Trump still wins 289 electoral votes, and in that model, they assume a 9% drop in the stock market between now and election day. Four more years.
Donald Trump may be on the path to a landslide re-election win in 2020.
Each of the three election models used by Moody’s Analytics to forecast the 2020 election indicates that Donald Trump will likely win the presidential contest. Under two of the models, Trump is forecast to win with more than the 304 electoral college votes he garnered in 2016.
“Under the average of the three models, Trump would hold on to key industrial Midwest states and pick up New Hampshire, Virginia, and Minnesota,” Moody’s said in a report detailing the results of its models.
Moody’s election forecasts have been very reliable in the past, correctly predicting every election result except 2016. The model undercounted support for Trump because it did not anticipate the increase in voter turnout that shifted the majority vote in crucial states.
Importantly, Moody’s models all predict Trump wins even if the economy dips to multiyear lows by the end of 2020, and the stock market crashes 9 percent. In other words, Trump is expected to win despite a falling stock market and a sagging economy.
Moody’s “pocketbook” model looks at three variables: gasoline prices, home prices, and changes in real personal income. Voters tend to see higher gasoline prices as negative, higher home prices, and incomes as positive. Moody’s uses its economic models to predict how these variables will perform in the months leading up to the election.
“Under the baseline economic forecasts, the pocketbook model projects the most favorable outcome for Trump. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition, taking home 351 electoral votes to the Democrats’ 187, assuming average voter turnout,” Moody’s explains.