The conventional wisdom in this election year is that Democrats will vote early by mail in numbers far greater than Republicans. But Republicans show up in greater numbers on election day. If that is true, Joe Biden is dead meat. It also means that the badly skewed polls are….well, badly skewed. There are some unknowns associated with the voting this year.
No one really knows how the Independent voters will do. We don’t know how many Democrats will vote for Trump or how many Republicans will vote for Biden. But, if we assume the same numbers of defections from both parties, the news sucks for Joe Biden. For the narrative to play out, Biden should have big leads in all of the swing states.
We begin with Texas, a state Trump won by nine points in 2016. The polls show him leading by just 2.6%. However, in early voting, 53% of the early voters are Republicans, and only 37% are for the Democrats. Assuming that more Republicans than Democrats vote on election day, Biden is toast in that state. He would lose even if every Independent voter cast their ballot for Biden.
Next up, Michigan. According to the polls, Biden leads by 7.8% in Michigan. 3.1 million votes have been cast. The Republican ballots add up to 41% and the Democrats at 39%. Again, if more Republicans vote on election day, Trump wins easily.
Now, Ohio. Trump won Ohio in 2016 by 8.1%. The current polls call the race a tie. But, in early balloting Republicans are creaming the Democrats 48% to 39%. Does this appear like a tie to you?
Democrats are getting real nervous in Florida now. After weeks of dominating the early voting, They now find their lead being cut drastically by the Republicans. With that momentum and the election day advantage, the picture there is also growing dim.
Here’s a key metric Politico reports on that should very much worry Team Biden: “According to TargetSmart’s analysis, Black voters aged 18 to 29 have cast 15.8 percent of the total ballots so far in Florida. That’s half a percentage point down from the same period in 2016.”
So far, and keep in mind this is still early, Biden is underperforming Hillary Clinton in a key demographic in a key swing state.
We have nine long days to go, so anything could still happen. But there are enough early votes to at least get a sense of who’s voting, and as of right now, unless a whole lot of Republicans are voting for Biden, in these states at least, I’d rather be Trump than Biden.
If these numbers continue to hold true, we are in for four more years of Trump.