Since the Brett Kavanaugh debacle, the Democrats have been losing ground in the Senate races, and now, Real Clear Politics is expecting the Republicans to pick up between two and four seats. That would almost assure that the Democrats will not be able to get enough RINO votes to block the Republicans. Not only that, but the Republicans replacing Jeff Flake and Bob Corker would be replaced by conservatives, which is about the same as a pickup. Polls show that Heidi Heitkamp is losing by double digits. Claire McCaskill has fallen behind Josh Hawley. And Indiana, West Virginia and Montana are too close to call. Bob Menendez could even lose his seat as Democrat after Democrat is endorsing Bob Hugin over Menendez.
RealClearPolitics data is pointing to a red wave in the Senate this November, with recent polls showing key seats like North Dakota and Arizona going or staying red.
RealClear currently predicts that at least 49 Senate seats will be Republican and at least 44 will be Democrats, with seven toss-up races. In three of those toss-ups, recent polls contain good news for Republican candidates. If Republicans do win in the four toss-up races where they have the best chances — Arizona, Tennessee, Nevada and Missouri — the Senate could see a net gain of up to two senators, from 51 to 53.
In Arizona’s so-called “toss-up” race, Republican candidate Martha McSally has a 6-point lead on Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in the most recent poll from early October.
Other toss-up races in Nevada and Missouri show slimmer margins for Republicans. Republican incumbent Sen. Dean Heller is up by two points, which is within the margin of error, on Democratic challenger Jacky Rosen, according to numbers from late September and early October. In Missouri, Republican challenger Josh Hawley has a narrow 0.4 lead on Democratic incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill, according to RealClear.
This is bad news for Democrats if either Ruth Bader Ginsburg or Stephen Breyer are forced to resign because of age and health.
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