We know how accurate the polls were in the last Presidential election. They were completely wrong. But when it comes to Congressional races which represent a small region of a state, polls tend to be more accurate. This is not looking good for Republicans and President Trump in a Pennsylvania special election on March 13th, 2018. But is this really an indicator of the strength of anti-Trump forces?
The day before the special election, the Democrat candidate was favored in polls by 6 points for a historically Republican House seat. How did this happen and why does it matter?
Congressman Tim Murphy, of Pennsylvania 18, was so solid in his Congressional seat that he didn’t even have an opponent in the general election in 2014 or 2016.
Mitt Romney had won the solidly red district by 17 points in 2012. Trump won the district by over 20 points in 2016.
Rep. Tim Murphy blew it up. In late 2017 it was revealed that he had an affair with an aide. She apparently told him she was pregnant and he made the disastrous decision to text her, encouraging her to have an abortion. The anti-abortion conservative had to resign in disgrace.
Now the Democrats are on a mission to prove that President Trump is so unpopular and his governance is so disastrous that a Democrat will take this solid red district and turn it blue. They are excitedly shouting “This is the big indicator for the midterms!”
CNN claims “Republicans are in the final hours of their frantic, all-out bid to save a Pennsylvania congressional district in the heart of Trump country from falling into Democratic hands in Tuesday’s special election.”
The Democrats are determined to prove by this special election that they can win the House back in the 2018 midterms and reinstate Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. Of course this will mean they can impeach President Trump. That is the long term goal after all.
However the anti-Trump far left media is missing a big piece of this election. They will not discuss how conservative the Democrat candidate actually is.
The Democrat Candidate Conor Lamb is personally pro-life, is anti-gun control and says he doesn’t care much for Nancy Pelosi. He has made a point not to criticize President Trump during the election and supports many of the President’s policies. ABC news confessed the day before the election; “If Lamb wins, he could become one of the most conservative Democrats in office.”
The liberal media, CBS, calls the Republican candidate Rick Saccone a lackluster legislator best known for introducing a measure to require that “In God We Trust” be inscribed in public school buildings that was defeated. The media will point out how badly that worked out for the Senate Republican candidate in Alabama. Judge Roy Moore, famous for fighting for the ‘Ten Commandments’ display at the State courthouse, disastrously lost the solid Republican Alabama Senate seat to Democrat Doug Jones in a special election a few months prior.
Despite what the media says, the Republican Saccone is a very solid candidate. The Weekly Standard points out that Saccone got his Ph.D. at the University of Pittsburgh before serving as a senior counterintelligence agent during the Iraq war has visited 75 countries and has written nine books. Before that he served as a counterintelligence special agent in the Air Force for over a decade, became a television news anchor in South Korea and helped negotiate the terms of nuclear power plant construction in North Korea. That is serious experience given the issues America is faced with today.
The polls are not good for Republican despite pouring millions of dollars in to the race. On March 1st an Emerson poll had the Democrat up by 3%. According to a Monmouth University poll done on March 12th, Lamb holds a 51% to 45% lead over Saccone. This is if a Democratic turnout surge is similar to voting seen in other special elections over the past year, like Alabama. The Democrats are claiming a victory even if they lose this race by 2 or 3 points.
“This district has voted overwhelmingly Republican in recent elections, but a large number of these voters have blue-collar Democratic roots. Lamb seems to have connected with them,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Will the Republicans show up to vote in a special election? Will President Trumps rally actually rally the troops? Can another strong red district be turned blue?
Even if the election is close, the far left will call it a victory for the anti-Trump campaign and use it to surge into November. But there is an important phenomenon being missed in this race. Democrats on the ground are electing more conservative moderates in the primaries, which is good news for all of us, despite the outcome.