On The Veracity of Polls: Who Supports Impeachment Exactly?

If you’re like me, you have Caller ID on your phone.  It’s a marvelous service, allowing you to see who’s calling you, so you know when to pick it up and when to ignore.  When we see on the Caller ID that it’s a political action committee or a campaign, we generally don’t pick up.  It’s the sensible thing to do; we don’t like wasting our time.  “It’s most likely a robocall anyway,” we say to ourselves.  And yet, almost all polls from the folks at Gallup are phone-oriented, at a rate of 70-30 mobile-landline.

In a blistering random nationwide phone poll spanning the first half of October, Gallup came up with a majority figure of concerned persons in favor of giving the God-Emperor the sack, Breitbart News reports, the same shooting an email back for clarification on the specifics of their respondent pool, and whether they were verified as voters or even American at all.  Sounds outlandish in such few words, but Gallup’s data were surprisingly scant, and the sleuths found them wanting, though you might not tell at first from the sheer size of it.

So, who is picking up their phones to give these poll results that our media gives us as proof positive of popular support and condemnation?  Let’s find out.

“52% of Americans now support Trump’s impeachment and removal,” a story highlight of the Gallup News article published on October 16 claimed.

But Gallup has confirmed to Breitbart News that it does not know how many illegal aliens or non-citizen legal residents were among the 1,526 respondents questioned in the poll conducted between October 1 and October 13.  Gallup also confirmed that it does not know how many of the poll respondents are registered voters.

Doesn’t know, didn’t ask, or won’t tell?  Perhaps they couldn’t keep people on the phone long enough for that many questions.

As a result, it appears that the Gallup Poll released last Wednesday, which has been widely reported in the mainstream media as an indicator that public support for impeachment is on the rise, dramatically overstates the percentage of American citizens–and particularly American citizens who are registered voters–who support impeachment.

This comes as a surprise to no one.  A paltry 1500 people out of a third of a billion in the US (329.6 million to be precise) is a pitiful sample size to be speaking for the entire country; it’s reminiscent of the Bully Hunters debacle last year, in which a 2012 survey of 874 people was extrapolated to the entire video game console market to make the claim that 3 million women had been harassed out of online gaming.  But I digress.  That is merely an isolated example of the chronic issue at hand.

Of all the data Gallup collected this month (most of it heavily skewed in favor of Democrats and Independents who did not have Caller ID), one thing that is left out from their extensive response to Breitbart News is how many failed calls there were to retrieve what data they have.  Did they call 5,000 numbers to reach those 1,500?  Ten thousand?  Fifteen? How many calls were attempted per day via their “random-digit-dial” system?  How many terminated mid-call after realizing their mistake of answering the phone?  Those are the questions this author would ask.

This author’s guess is people would take these organizations even less seriously if they knew what a minority their pollsters’ molehills of respondents truly were.  Add to that the filter for people willing to fully answer a political cold-call at the risk of exposing their views to someone who knows their phone number, and sure enough, you can go to print with the headline “Majority of Americans Want Trump Out!” when your source is 37 people who answered the phone in Spanish and may not actually be citizens.

To be honest, folks, this author hasn’t taken one poll seriously since Hillary lost the election.  Our President is not always right, but he was right about this: the mainstream media are the enemy of the people.  They’ll tell us what they want to hear; they will confirm their own bias.  At the very least, we should be reminded that all our polling data is coming from people not smart enough to use Caller ID and that their conditioning is being passed shamelessly as informed public opinion regardless. ~~

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